06/09/2019
A silent revolution is arriving on our streets. Before too long, commuters will use their mobiles to summon fully autonomous robot taxis. These will collect them from home and drive them to the closest metro station, from where they can catch a train to work in the city centre. These zero-emission vehicles will be electric, powered by solar or wind generation. We believe this transformation is just around the corner. It promises to change the mobility market, and much more.
Within the next five years, cities will begin to transform their transit systems, to tackle the twin challenges of congestion and climate change. By using autonomous taxis with significantly higher capacity and usage rates, and integrated with traffic optimization systems, cities could reduce the number of cars on their streets by more than 40%. In an optimistic scenario, a city like Berlin could use robot taxis to carry up to 60% of its passengers. Changes like this would bring clean, affordable and secure mobility to city residents.
A more likely scenario sees autonomous vehicles making up 2% of new vehicle sales globally by 2025, rising to 8% by 2030. If the cost of self-driving cars falls faster, and cities introduce new mobility systems more quickly, autonomous vehicles could make up 30% or more of the market by 2030.
The Technology Behind Robot Taxis
Robot taxis, also known as autonomous vehicles (AVs) or self-driving cars, rely on a sophisticated combination of hardware and software to navigate public roads without human intervention. At the core of this technology are advanced sensor systems, including LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), radar, cameras, and ultrasonic sensors. These sensors work in unison to create a detailed, real-time 3D map of the vehicle's surroundings, identifying other vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, road signs, and potential hazards.
This sensor data is fed into powerful onboard computers that run complex AI algorithms. These algorithms process the information, predict the behaviour of other road users, and make instantaneous decisions about steering, acceleration, and braking. Machine learning plays a crucial role, allowing the vehicles to learn and improve their performance over time based on vast amounts of driving data. High-definition maps, far more detailed than consumer GPS maps, are also essential for precise navigation, providing information about lane markings, road curvature, and speed limits.
The development of autonomous driving is often categorised using the SAE International's levels of driving automation, ranging from Level 0 (no automation) to Level 5 (full automation). Robot taxis are expected to operate at Level 4 or Level 5, meaning they can handle all driving tasks within specific operational design domains (ODDs) or under all conditions, respectively, without human oversight.
Policy and Regulatory Landscape
Legislation will be a critical enabler in this transformation, as cities and countries make strong commitments to reduce carbon emissions. Regulations will increase pressure on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, creating incentives for zero-emission cars such as battery-powered electric vehicles (EVs). Some cities will ban ICEs from their most congested districts, and could restrict these areas to shared vehicles. These regulatory changes will pave the way for greater use of electric, autonomous taxis.
Governments and city planners are at a crucial juncture, needing to establish clear regulatory frameworks for the safe and efficient deployment of robot taxis. This includes standards for vehicle safety, data privacy, cybersecurity, and operational permits. Public acceptance is also a key factor, and policies will need to address concerns about job displacement for professional drivers and the ethical implications of AI decision-making in critical situations.
Industry Investment and Key Players
At the same time, automotive and technology companies are investing substantially in the software and hardware required for full automation of urban mobility (levels 4 and 5 of the Society of Automotive Engineers’ scale). Some companies are already piloting autonomous vehicles in cooperative cities.
| Company | Focus | Notable Achievements |
|---|---|---|
| Waymo (Alphabet) | Autonomous driving technology, ride-hailing services | Millions of self-driven miles logged, commercial ride-hailing in select cities |
| General Motors (Cruise) | Autonomous vehicle development, mobility services | Significant investment, aiming for large-scale deployment |
| Daimler (now Mercedes-Benz) | Vehicle manufacturing, mobility platforms | Acquisition of mytaxi, integrating mobility services |
| Uber, Lyft, Didi | Ride-sharing platforms, investing in AV technology | Developing their own AV capabilities, partnering with AV developers |
Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, has logged four million self-driven miles. General Motors is also embracing the opportunity. It forecasts a substantial increase of revenue generated for GM over a car’s lifetime. Daimler’s acquisition of mytaxi, an app-based mobility company, underscores the importance of platforms in this new ecosystem.
Technology companies such as Uber, Lyft, and Didi have accepted heavy losses to position themselves at the front of mobility services, as either platform owners or robot taxi fleet operators. They will continue to compete to gain market share.
The Impact on Consumers and Cities
Consumer behaviour is also evolving, as younger people show less appetite to own and drive cars. Car ownership has fallen since 2000 in some countries. Urbanization is also an important factor, as commuters seek alternative and integrated means of transportation. This further favours the emergence of robot taxis.
The shift towards robot taxis promises a host of benefits for urban dwellers. Firstly, affordability is a key driver. By operating vehicles more intensively and eliminating the cost of a human driver, robot taxi services are expected to be significantly cheaper than traditional taxis or private car ownership. Secondly, convenience will be enhanced, with on-demand availability and seamless integration with other public transport options. Thirdly, safety is projected to improve, as human error is a leading cause of road accidents. Autonomous systems, designed to be vigilant and consistent, could drastically reduce collisions.
Cities stand to gain immensely from reduced congestion and pollution. With higher utilisation rates and the potential for platooning (vehicles driving in close formation), robot taxis can optimise road space. Furthermore, their electric nature contributes to cleaner air and a quieter urban environment. The reduction in private car ownership could also free up valuable urban space currently dedicated to parking.
The Role of Car Manufacturers and Electricity Providers
Car manufacturers are preparing for this transformation. They recognize that it will shift some of the profit pool from manufacturing to technologies and services, including batteries, mobility services, and software that drives cars and manages mobility networks. As they expand their businesses to become mobility service providers, car companies will manage and maintain large fleets of robot taxis.
Electricity suppliers will see fleets of electric vehicles as another decentralized and digitalized energy resource, capable of providing flexible power that can flatten demand peaks and reduce infrastructure investments. These companies will also play an important role in supplying ultrafast charging stations and managing the energy of buildings and microgrids connected to EV fleets.
This symbiotic relationship between the automotive and energy sectors is crucial. The widespread adoption of electric robot taxis will necessitate a robust and smart charging infrastructure. Energy providers will need to manage charging schedules to avoid overwhelming the grid, potentially using vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology to return power to the grid during peak demand.
Public-Private Cooperation for Success
Although the direction of change seems clear, the pace is less certain. More players are likely to enter the market as opportunities arise. Winners are likely to be those who move quickly, form essential partnerships and position themselves at the high-margin parts of the value chain. Those that can provide integrated solutions are likely to gain a competitive edge.
Utilities and other companies in the energy sector will also play a central role, supplying the power to this electrified mobility system, leveraging EVs as decentralized energy resources, and integrating EVs and charging stations into smart energy networks.
Ultimately, cities will control and regulate urban mobility. Working with mobility providers, automotive companies and the energy sector, they will make the policies and decisions that will catalyze this transformation and provide clean, affordable and secure mobility to their urban populations. This collaborative approach, involving cross-sector partnerships, is essential for navigating the complexities and unlocking the full potential of robot taxi services.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: When will robot taxis be widely available?
A1: While pilot programs are already underway, widespread availability is expected to ramp up significantly over the next 5-10 years, depending on regulatory progress and technological advancements.
Q2: Will robot taxis be more expensive than current taxis?
A2: In the long term, robot taxis are anticipated to be more affordable than traditional taxis due to lower operating costs (no driver wages) and higher vehicle utilisation.
Q3: How will robot taxis affect jobs?
A3: The rise of robot taxis will likely lead to a decline in demand for human taxi and ride-share drivers. However, it will also create new jobs in areas such as AV maintenance, fleet management, software development, and customer support.
Q4: Are robot taxis safe?
A4: The goal of robot taxi technology is to enhance safety by eliminating human error, which is a major cause of accidents. While the technology is still evolving, rigorous testing and regulation aim to ensure a high level of safety.
Q5: How will robot taxis impact the environment?
A5: Robot taxis are predominantly electric, contributing to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improved air quality in urban areas. Their efficient operation can also lead to reduced energy consumption.
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